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Weekly Rate Lock Advisory 

This week brings us the release of little relevant economic data for the markets to digest. We will, however, see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and have a couple of Treasury auctions to watch. There are no relevant monthly economic reports scheduled for release this week, so look for the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates.

There is nothing of relevance scheduled for tomorrow, but it is the first opportunity for the stock markets to react to Friday's employment numbers. They were closed Friday in observance of the Good Friday holiday, so we won't get to see how the stock markets feel about the data until tomorrow's open. The bond market was open until noon Friday and reacted negatively to its results. It is likely that stocks will react positively to the data, making it difficult for bonds to move higher and mortgage rates to improve tomorrow.

There is no relevant news scheduled until Tuesday afternoon when the FOMC minutes will be released. Market participants will be looking at these minutes closely. They give us insight to the Fed's current thought process and individual Fed member opinions. Any surprises in the 2:00 PM ET release, particularly about inflation or when the Fed may start raising key interest rates, could cause afternoon volatility in the markets Tuesday and possible changes in mortgage pricing.

The two Treasury auctions are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. There is a 10-year Treasury Note sale Wednesday and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. We could see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sales as investing firms sell current holdings to prepare for them. This weakness is usually only temporary if the sales are met with a decent demand. The results of the auctions will be posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If the demand from investors was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the sales were m et with a poor demand, the afternoon weakness may cause upward revisions to mortgage pricing Wednesday and/or Thursday afternoon.

Overall, I am proceeding into this week very cautiously. There are several variables that could make this week very quiet or quite rocky for mortgage shoppers. Tuesday's FOMC minutes could very well be a major market mover or a complete non-factor. The same goes for the Treasury auctions. In other words, we may have a very calm week ahead of us, or we may see rates move noticeably several days. With no important economic data to drive trading and mortgage rates, bonds may move with stocks. This means large stock gains could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates. But stock weakness could lead to mortgage pricing improving for the week. Regardless, a lack of economic data is not reason to let our guard down if still floating an interest rate. Watch the market closely and proceed cautiously if not locked yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory

This week brings us the release of four pieces of relevant economic news in addition to the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting. Two of the economic reports are considered to be highly important to the markets and mortgage rates, so we likely will see more movement in rates again this week.

Nothing of importance is scheduled for Monday, so look for the stock markets to be a major influence on bond trading and mortgage pricing. If the stock markets open the week with sizable gains, bonds will likely suffer and mortgage rates will probably move higher tomorrow. However, more stock weakness should translate into slightly lower rates tomorrow.

The first report of the week is April's Producer Price Index (PPI) early Tuesday morning, which helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, indicating inflation is not a concern at the producer l evel, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.1%, while the core data that excludes more volatile food and energy prices is also expected to rise 0.1%. No change or a decline in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers because inflation is the number one nemesis for long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds.

April's Housing Starts will also be posted early tomorrow morning, but is much less important than the PPI readings are. This data measures housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking new permits and actual starts of new home construction. It is expected to show an increase in new starts from March's readings. Since this report is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market, it likely will have little impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts and the PPI matches forecasts.

Wednesday's only economic data is Apr il's Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET. It is similar to Tuesday's PPI report, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. Its' results will be watched closely and can lead to significant volatility in the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% increase in the overall index and no change in the core data reading. As with the PPI, the core data is the more important of the two readings.

Also Wednesday will be the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation concerns in the economy. The goal is to form opinions about when the Fed may make a move to key short-term interest rates. The minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during afternoon trading.

The last data comes late Thursday morning with the release of April's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) at 10:00 AM ET. This Conference Board report attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.2% increase from March's reading, meaning that economic activity is likely rise slightly during the next few months. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, while a larger increase could cause mortgage rates to inch higher Thursday.

Overall, it appears it is going to be another active week for the mortgage market. We have two inflation readings that are very important to the bond market the middle part of the week. Stock market volatility will likely also affect bond trading again this week, so we may see movement in rates several days. Wednesday's CPI is the single most important report of the week, but Tuesday's PPI can also heavily influence the bond market. If the stock markets remain fairly calm, I wou ld guess the middle part of the week will probably be the most important for mortgage pricing. However, sizable gains or losses in the major stock indexes could influence bonds and mortgage rates as much as this week's economic data can. Therefore, this is another week that it is highly recommended you maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory

There are four pieces of relevant economic news scheduled for release this week in addition to two important Treasury auctions, but one report stands out above the others. The four reports will be posted over two days, meaning the markets will have to rely on factors others than economic news for direction several days. There is no relevant data due Monday or Tuesday, so expect the stock markets to help drive bond trading and mortgage rates those days.

March's Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be released early Wednesday morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but likely will not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a $40.0 billion trade deficit, but it is the least important of this week's data and likely will have little impact on Wednesday's mortgage rates.

The Treasury will hold a 10-year Note sale Wednesday and a 30-year Bond sale Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:30 PM ET each day. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding in the sale could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons.

The remaining three economic reports will be released Friday morning. The first is the most important piece of data of the week. April's Retail Sales will be released at 8:30 AM ET. It is an extremely important report for the financial markets since it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% increase in sales from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower Friday morning. However, a larger increase could fuel fears of economic growth that would lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates.

The second report of the day is April's Industrial Production. It measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.6% increase in production, indicating that manufacturing activity is growing. A smaller than expected increase in output would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it would indicate that the manufacturing sector is not as strong as thought.

The last report of the week is May's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index measures consumer willingness to spend, which relates to the importance of consumer spending. This report usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets though. It is expected to show a reading of 73.5, which would be a little higher than last month's final reading. If it shows a decline in consumer confidence, bond prices could rise and mortgage rates would move slightly lower, assuming the Retail Sales data does not give us a significant surprise.

Overall, it likely will be another active week for mortgage rates, but probably not as much as last week was. Besides the week's important economic news, look for the stock markets to be a major influence on trading. The most important day of the week is Friday with three reports on the agenda, including the sales data. But I would not be surprised to see a particularly active day tomorrow, especially if the stock markets post sizable gains or losses. Accordingly, please be attentive to the markets if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place o ver 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory 

This week brings us the release of five relevant economic reports for the markets to digest. There is data scheduled for release four of the five days, so it may turnout to be a fairly active week for mortgage rates.

Unlike many Mondays, the week kicks off with important data being posted tomorrow morning. March's Personal Income & Outlays is the first of two reports on the agenda for tomorrow. It helps us measure consumers' ability to spend and current spending habits, which is important to the mortgage market due to the influence that consumer spending-related data has on the financial markets. If a consumer's income is rising, they are more likely to make additional purchases in the near future. This raises inflation concerns and has a negative impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.3% increase in the income reading and a 0.6% rise in spending. If we see smaller than expected readings, th e bond market should open higher tomorrow morning, making an improvement to mortgage rates a good possibility.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for April late tomorrow morning. This is one of the first important economic reports released each month and gives us an indication of manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. This points toward more manufacturing activity and could hurt bond prices, pushing mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see a reading of 61.0, which would be an increase from March's level of sentiment. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.

March's Factory Orders data is Tuesday's only relatively important data. It will be released at 10:00AM, giving us a measure of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to last week's Dur able Goods Orders, except this report includes non-durable goods such as food and clothing. Generally, the market is more concerned with the durable goods orders like refrigerators and electronics than items such as cigarettes and toothpaste. This is why the Durable Goods report usually has more of an impact on the financial markets than the Factory Orders report does. Still, a larger decline than the 0.1% that is expected could push mortgage rates slightly lower. But, a sizable increase in new orders could lead to slightly higher mortgage pricing Tuesday.

There are no relevant reports or events scheduled for Wednesday, meaning non-economic factors such as stock prices will probably have the biggest influence on bond trading and mortgage rates that day. Generally speaking, a stock rally pulls funds from bonds, leading to bond selling and higher mortgage rates. However, stock selling makes bonds more appealing to investors. When the funds are shifted into bonds to escape the volatility in stocks, we often see mortgage rates move lower. If the major stock indexes remain calm Wednesday, mortgage rates should follow suit.

The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early Thursday morning. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. If employee productivity is rapidly rising, the bond market should react favorably. However, a decrease could cause bond prices to drop and mortgage rates to rise Thursday morning. It is expected to show a 2.6% increase in productivity and a 1.0% decline in the labor costs reading.

Friday brings us the release of the almighty monthly Employment report, giving us April's employment statistics. This is where we may see a huge rally or major sell-off in the bond market and large changes in mortgage rates. The ideal situation for the bond and mortgage markets would be an increase in the unemployment rate and a much smaller number of payrolls added to the economy during the month than was expected.

Just how much of an improvement or worsening in rates depends on how much variance there is between forecasts and actual readings. This could turn out to be a wonderful day in the mortgage market, but it also carries risks of seeing mortgage rates move higher if the Labor Department posts stronger than expected readings. Current forecasts are calling for the unemployment rate to slip to 9.6% from March's 9.7% and that approximately 200,000 jobs were added during the month.

Overall, I believe Friday will be the most important day of the week with the employment data being posted. It can easily erase the week's accumulated gains or losses in mortgage rates if it shows any surprises. We may actually see a noticeable change in rates tomorrow also if its two reports both show favorable or unfavorable results. The middle part of the week will likely be the calmest, but I still suggest proceeding cautiously if still floating an interest rate. This would be a good week to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked a rate yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory

This week is fairly active with four relevant economic reports in addition to another FOMC meeting and two fairly important Treasury auctions. All of the reports are considered to be at least moderately important while one particularly is considered very important to the markets and mortgage rates. This makes it likely that we will a fair amount of movement in mortgage pricing over the next several days.

The first report comes late Tuesday morning when the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April will be released. This Conference Board index is a key indicator of future spending by consumers. The group surveys 5000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial situations. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed that consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. However, if they are concerned about issues such as job security and investments, they will probably delay making large purchases. The latter is better for the bond market and mortgage rates because the expected slowdown in spending would keep inflation concerns to a minimum. But, a sizable increase could hurt the bond market, pushing mortgage rates higher Tuesday. It is expected to show a reading of 53.7, which would be a small increase from March's 52.5 reading.

This week's FOMC meeting will begin on Tuesday but will not adjourn until Wednesday afternoon. It will likely adjourn with an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates, but we may see some volatility in the markets following the 2:15 PM ET post-meeting statement. There appears to be more and more discussion about when the Fed will have to start raising key interest rates to prevent inflation from strengthening. If the statement gives any hint of when that may be, or there is a change in the regular canned portions of the statement, we could see a sizable change to mortgage rates Wednesday afternoon.

In addition to this week's economic reports, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Notes Wednesday and 7-year Notes on Thursday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. However, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors and bring more funds into bonds. The buying of bonds that follows usually translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

There is nothing of importance scheduled for Thursday morning but there are three reports scheduled for release late Friday morning. The first is the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth or contraction. I expect this report to cause major movement in the financial markets Friday and therefore the mortgage market also. Analysts are expecting to see an increase in output at an annual rate of 3.2%. A much smaller increase would be good news for mortgage rates. But, a stronger than expected reading would almost certainly cause stock prices to rise and bond prices to fall, leading to higher mortgage rates Friday morning.

The second report of the day is the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. This gives us a measurement of wage-inflation. If it shows a large increase, we may see wage inflation concerns cause the bond market to fall and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are showing a rise of 0.5%.

The last is the University of Michigan's update to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for April. This report gives us an indication of consumer sentiment. I don't expect it to have a significant impact on bonds and mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for an upward revision to push the index to 71.5. This means that surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than they were earlier this month.

Overall, look for plenty of movement in the financial markets and mortgage some days this week, while others will probably be calm. Wednesday will likely be the most important day of the week with the FOMC adjournment, but we may see noticeable changes to rates Friday after the GDP is posted. If this week's reports reveal we aker than expected economic conditions, the bond market should extend its rally and mortgage rates should fall for the week. However, I recommend taking a cautious approach towards rates if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory

This week is moderately active in terms of economic news scheduled for release. There are five reports scheduled, but only two of them carry the potential to cause noticeable movement in mortgage rates. Accordingly, there is a decent possibility of seeing a relatively calm week in the mortgage market, assuming that the stock markets do the same.

The week's first data comes late tomorrow morning when the Conference Board will release their Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for March. This data attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. This is considered to be a moderately important report, so we may see a slight movement in rates as a result of this report. It is expected to show an increase of 1.0%, meaning it is predicting rapid growth in economic activity of the next several months. A much smaller than expected increase would be considered good news for the bond market and could lead to slightly lower mortgage rates tomorrow.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release Tuesday or Wednesday. The next report comes early Thursday morning when the Labor Department will post March's Producer Price Index (PPI). It will give us an important measurement of inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the report that analysts watch- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is more important to market participants because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If it shows rapidly rising prices, inflation fears may hurt bond prices since it erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments, leading to higher mortgage rates. However, a slight increase, or better yet a decline in prices, would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.5% increase in the overall reading and a 0.1% rise in the core data.

Also Thursday, the National Association of Realtor s will post March's Existing Homes Sales numbers. A similar report to this one and actually the week's least important data- March's New Home Sales will be released Friday morning. Both of these releases give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but unless they vary greatly from analysts' forecasts, I don't think they will cause much movement in mortgage rates. Both are expected to show increases from February's levels.

March's Durable Goods Orders will be released early Friday morning. This report gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in new orders of 0.2%. This would be a sign of slight manufacturing sector growth, but this data can be quite volatile from month-to-month. Therefore, a small variance between forecasts and the actual results will not heavily influence the markets or mortgage rates. A decline would be considered good news, while a large increase would indicate manufacturing sector strength. The latter could lead to higher mortgage rates Friday.

Overall, look for Thursday or Friday to be the most important day of the week with the PPI and Durable Goods reports being posted. The rest of the week will likely be heavily influenced by the stock markets. If the major stock indexes rally, bonds will likely suffer and mortgage rates will move higher. If stocks extend last Friday's fall, we could see mortgage rates move lower the next few days.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory

This week brings us the release of seven relevant economic reports for the bond market to digest. We are also heading into corporate earnings season, which could lead to fluctuations in the stock markets. If earnings come in lighter than estimates, the stock markets may fall, leading to an influx of funds into bonds. But, if earnings and forecasts are strong, the major stock indexes may rally, pulling funds from bonds and leading to higher mortgage rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The first report of the week comes Tuesday morning but it is the least important one. February's Goods and Service Trade Balance will be posted early Tuesday morning. This data gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but unless it varies greatly from forecasts, it likely will not cause much movement in mortgage rates. Current forecasts show a $39.0 billion trade deficit.

The first important report will be posted early Wednesday morning when the Commerce Department will release March's Retail Sales data. This piece of data gives us a measurement of consumer spending, which is very important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Forecasts are calling for a 1.1% increase in sales last month. If we see a larger increase in spending, the bond market will probably fall and mortgage rates will rise. However, a weaker than expected reading could push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower Wednesday.

Also scheduled for release Wednesday is March's Consumer Price Index (CPI). This index is one of the most important pieces of data we see each month. It measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy. If inflation is rapidly rising, bonds become less appealing to investors because it erodes the value of their future fixed interest payments. This leads to bond selling and higher mortgage rates. There are two readings i n the index that traders watch. The first is the overall reading while the second is the more important core data reading that excludes more volatile food and energy prices. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.1% increase in both readings. If we see larger increases, we could get higher mortgage rates Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve will post its Fed Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday for the third event of the day. This report is named simply after the color of its cover and details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. Since the Fed relies heavily on the contents of this report during their FOMC meetings, its results can have a fairly big impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates if it reveals any significant surprises. Generally speaking, signs of strong economic growth or inflation rising would be considered negative for bonds and mortgage rates. Slowing economic conditions with little sign of inflationary pressures would be considered favorable for bonds and mortgage pricing.

Thursday's relevant data is March's Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET. It gives us a measurement of output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, translating into an indication of manufacturing sector strength. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in production of 0.7%. This data is considered to be only moderately important to rates, so it will take a more than just a slight variance to influence bond trading and mortgage pricing.

This leaves two reports for Friday. March's Housing Starts is first, but it will likely be a non-factor in the market. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, however, usually doesn't cause much movement in mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from forecasts. It is expected to show an increase in construction starts of new homes.

The final release of the week is the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment at 9:45 AM ET Friday. Their consumer sentiment index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers' willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are more apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned of their personal financial situations, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and can have a moderate impact on the financial markets. Good news would be a decline from March's 73.6 reading. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of approximately 75.0.

Overall, look for the most movement in rates the middle part of the week. The Retail Sales and CPI reports are the biggest names on the agenda. Either of them can cause significant movement in the markets and mortgage rates, so the fact that they are being posted on the same day makes Wednesday the most important of the week. Look for the stock markets to influence bond trading and mortgage rates the first part of the week, but we can expect to see the most movement in rates the latter part. I am expecting it to be an active week for the mortgage market, so please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory 

This week brings us the release of five reports that are considered relevant to mortgage rates but some of the data is considered to be very important and one is arguably the single most important data we see each month. There is relevant data being posted each day and it is considered a holiday week, so we can expect to see a fair amount of volatility in the markets and possibly mortgage rates the next few days.

The first is February's Personal Income & Outlays report early tomorrow morning. This data helps us measure consumers' ability to spend and current spending habits, which is important to the mortgage market because of the influence that consumer spending related information has on the financial markets. If a consumer's income is rising, they are more likely to make additional purchases. This raises inflation concerns and has a negative affect on the bond market and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% increase in income and a 0.3% rise in spending.

March's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be posted late Tuesday morning. This index gives us an indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Bond traders watch this data closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of our economy. If this report shows that confidence is falling, it would indicate that consumers are more apt to delay making large purchases. If the report reveals that confidence looks to be growing, we may see bond traders sell, pushing mortgage rates higher Tuesday morning. It is expected to show an increase from February's 46.0 reading to 50.0 for March.

February's Factory Orders will be released early Wednesday morning. This data is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders report, except that this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods, giving us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength. It is also the least important of this week's five reports. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts of a 0.5% increase, I suspect that it will be a non-factor in the mortgage market.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index late Thursday morning. This index gives us an important measurement of manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives and is one of the more important of this week's data. A reading above 50 means more surveyed executives felt business improved during the month than those who said it had worsened. This month's report is expected to show a reading of 57.0, which would be a small increase from February's reading of 56.5. This means that analysts think business sentiment remained fairly close to last month's level.

The biggest news of the week will come early Friday morning when the Labor Department posts March's Employment report, giving us the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month. This is an extremely important re port to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show that the unemployment rate remained at 9.7% and that approximately 190,000 payrolls were added during the month. A higher unemployment rate and a smaller than expected payroll number would be good news for bonds and would likely push mortgage rates lower Friday.

Overall, I expect to see the most movement in rates either Thursday or Friday. Friday is the most important day of the week with the employment numbers being released, but we will likely see a fair amount of movement in rates Thursday morning also. I am expecting tomorrow or Wednesday to be the calmest day of the week, but we should still see some changes to rates those days. In general, it will probably be pretty active week. Also worth noting is that fact that the stock markets will be closed Friday in observance of the Good Friday holiday, but the bond market will open for trading until noon. This will likely create additional volatility in bonds Thursday afternoon and especially Friday morning. Accordingly, it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This week brings us the release of five monthly and quarterly reports for the bond market to digest along with two relevant Treasury auctions. Two of the reports can be considered much less important than the others, but with mortgage-relevant events scheduled four out of the five days we will still likely see some movement in rates a couple days this week. Tomorrow is the only day of the week that there is not a relevant economic report scheduled for release or other event taking place that may affect mortgage rates.

The first report of the week is February's Existing Home Sales from the National Association of Realtors late Tuesday morning. It will give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial markets. Its' sister report- February's New Home Sales, will be posted Wednesday morning. Since it is Tuesday's only data, it may influence bond trading enough to cause a slight change in mortgage rates, but it will take a large variance from forecasts for it to heavily influence rates. Current forecasts have Tuesday's report showing a small decline in sales and Wednesday's data showing a minor increase in sales.

Wednesday's important data comes from the Commerce Department, who will post February's Durable Goods Orders. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking new orders for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years. This data is known to be volatile from month to month but is still considered to be of high importance. Analysts are expecting it to show an increase in new orders of approximately 0.5%. A larger increase would be considered negative for bonds as it would indicate economic strength and could lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning.

The next relevant data is Friday's final revision to the 4th Quarter GDP. This is the second an d final revision to January's preliminary reading of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product, or the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. It is expected to show no change to the reading of 5.9% that was posted last month. Analysts are now more concerned with next month's preliminary reading of the 1st quarter than data from three to six months ago, so I don't expect this report to affect mortgage rates much.

The final report of the week comes from the University of Michigan at 9:45 AM ET Friday. Their revision to their March Consumer Sentiment Index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers' willingness to spend. This is relevant because rising levels of confidence usually means consumers are more willing to make large purchases in the near future. That translates into fuel for economic growth. It is expected to show an increase from the preliminary reading of 72.5, meaning that surveyed consumers were more optimistic about their own financial situations than previously thought. Favorable results for bonds and mortgage rates would be a decline in confidence.

In addition to this week's economic reports, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Notes Wednesday and 7-year Notes on Thursday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. However, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors and bring more funds into bonds. The buying of bonds that follows usually translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET auction day, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon hours.

Overall, it is difficult to label one particular day as the most important of the week. The single most important report will likely be the Durable Goods Orders, but none of the week's data has the potential to be a major market mover. If the stock markets move lower, we should see gains in bonds and improvements in mortgage rates. But, if stocks move higher, pressure in bonds is possible, leading to higher mortgage pricing. I suspect that this week will be a little calmer for mortgage rates than the past couple weeks have been, but I still recommend proceeding with caution if you are still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.