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Weekly Rate Lock Advisory

This week brings us the release of six economic reports to be concerned with. Two of the reports are considered to be very important, but nearly all of the week's releases have the potential to affect mortgage rates. With reports being posted each day except Tuesday, we will likely see a fairly active week in mortgage rates.

The week's first data comes tomorrow morning with the release of two relevant reports. The first is January's Personal Income ad Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET, which gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Current forecasts call for an increase in income of 0.4% while spending is expected to rise 0.4%. A larger than expected increase in spending would be bad news for the bond market and could drive mortgage rates higher. However, weaker than expected numbers should help push mortgage rates slightly lower tomorrow.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release th eir manufacturing index for February late tomorrow morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a pretty large impact on the financial and mortgage markets if it varies from forecasts. It is expected to show a decline from January's 58.4 to 57.8 this month. This is important because a reading above 50.0 means more surveyed manufacturers felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened, meaning likely growth in the manufacturing sector. If we see a weaker than expected reading, the bond market could rally. But, a higher than forecasted reading could lead to major selling in bonds, causing mortgage rates to rise tomorrow morning.

The Fed Beige Book is the next report scheduled for release and it will be posted Wednesday afternoon. This report details economic activity throughout the country by region. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction during afternoon trad ing Wednesday. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but could cause enough movement in bond prices to possibly improve or worsen mortgage rates slightly if it reveals any significant surprises.

There are two reports scheduled for release Thursday morning. The first is the revised Productivity index for the 4th Quarter of last year. The preliminary reading posted last month showed an annual rate of 6.2% increase in worker output. Analysts are expecting to see no change to the initial reading. Employee productivity is watched fairy closely because a higher level of output per hour is believed to mean that the economy can expand without inflation concerns.

January's Factory Orders will be posted late Thursday morning, which will give us another measurement of manufacturing sector strength. This data is similar to last week's Durable Goods, except this report covers orders for both durable and non-du rable goods. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in new orders of approximately 1.2%. A smaller than expected rise would be good news for the bond market and could lead to an improvement in mortgage rates.

The biggest news of the week comes Friday morning when one of the single most important monthly reports we see will be posted. The Labor Department will release February's Employment report at 8:30 AM ET Friday. Some of the important portions of the report will give us the unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost and the average hourly earnings reading. The best combination for the bond market and mortgage rates would be an increase in the unemployment rate, a large drop in payrolls and little or no increase in earnings. Current forecasts are calling for 0.1% increase in the unemployment rate to 9.8% and approximately 20,000 jobs lost during the month.

Overall, look for a fairly active week for mortgage rates. Friday is undoubte dly the biggest day of the week, but tomorrow may also bring noticeable movement in mortgage rates. It is fairly safe to label Tuesday the least important with no relevant data scheduled for release, but we may see movement in rates several days this week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

This week brings us the release of five relevant economic reports along with an FOMC meeting for the markets to digest. The first piece of data will come mid-morning Monday when February's Industrial Production report is posted. This report measures manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show no change in output from January's level. A decline would be considered favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Tuesday's only factual economic news is February's Housing Starts, but it will likely not have much of an impact on mortgage rates. It gives us a measurement of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand, but is usually considered to be of low importance to the financial markets. It is expected to show a decline in new starts from January to February.

The big news Tuesday will be the FOMC meeting that will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET. It is widely believed that the Fed will make no change to key short-term interest rates at this meeting, but the post-meeting statement will be watched closely for any indication of when they will make a move. Generally speaking, the bond market wants to hear that inflation is not an immediate concern and that key rates will be kept at current levels for the near future. If the statement reassures traders that the Fed will not be raising rates anytime soon, we can expected the bond market to thrive and mortgage rates to move lower. However, if any hint of a move sooner than later could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates.

The Labor Department will post February's Producer Price Index (PPI) early Wednesday morning. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index- the overall reading and the core data. The core data is more important and watched more closely because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. I f the index shows a large increase, inflation concerns will rise, making long-term investments such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. This would lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday morning. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.2% decline in the overall reading and a 0.1% increase in the core data.

February's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released early Thursday, which measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy. Its results can definitely have a huge impact on the financial markets, especially long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds. It is expected to show a 0.1% increase in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the more important core data. If we see weaker than expected readings, bond prices should rise and mortgage rates would likely fall Thursday.

The Conference Board will post its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for February late Thursday morning. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.1% increase, indicating that economic activity will likely expand slightly in the coming weeks. A decline would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Overall, look for Thursday to be the most important day of the week due to the CPI release, but Tuesday's FOMC meeting can also heavily influence the markets. Wednesday may also be an active day for rates with the PPI on tap. Friday will probably be the calmest day for mortgage rates, but it appears there is a good possibility of seeing plenty of movement in rates the next several days. Therefore, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory

This week brings us the release of three economic releases for the bond and mortgage markets to digest along with 10-year Treasury Note and 30-year Bond auctions. All of the data will be posted the latter part of the week. Only one of the three reports is considered to be of high importance to the markets, so several days will likely be influenced more by stock trading and other factors than the economic news of the day.

There are no relevant events scheduled for Monday or Tuesday. The 10-year Treasury Note auction is scheduled for Wednesday while the 30-year bond sale will be held Thursday. Results of both sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET on the sale days. If investor demand was high, we may see bonds rally during afternoon trading, however, weak demand could lead to selling and an increase to mortgage rates. The results of the last sales do not give us much to look forward to, so it is not likely that these auctions will fuel a bond rally and a downward trend in mortgage pricing.

January's Goods and Services Trade Balance is the week's first economic data. It comes early Thursday morning and gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit. It is the week's least important piece of news and likely will not influence mortgage rates much. Current forecasts are calling for a $41.0 billion trade deficit during January.

There will be two reports posted Friday morning. The first is at 8:30 AM and is the most important of the week. This is when February's Retail Sales data will be posted. It is extremely important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, data that is related usually has a big impact on the financial markets. This month's report is expected to show an increase in sales of approximately 0.2%. If Friday's release reveals a larger than expected increase, the bond market will likely fall and mortgage rates will move higher. If it reveals a decline, I expect to see bond prices rise and mortgage rates improve Friday morning.

Also on tap Friday is the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for March at 9:45 AM. This index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, then consumers are more apt to make large purchases. This helps fuel consumer spending and economic growth. A drop in confidence will probably hurt the stock markets and boost bond prices, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the index rises, indicating that confidence is rising and spending will likely rise, we may see mortgage rates move higher late Friday morning. It is expected to show a reading of 73.8, which is a slight increase from February's final reading.

Overall, it will likely be another active week in the mortgage market. Friday will probably be the most important day of the week with the Retail Sales report due, while the calmest day could be tomorrow or Tuesday, depending on the stock markets. I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week, so please be careful if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory

This week brings us the release of six pieces of economic data for the bond market to digest along with some very important testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Two of the reports are considered to be of low importance, but since we have data being posted every day of the week except for tomorrow, it is likely that we will see plenty of movement in mortgage rates the next few days.

None of this week's economic data is scheduled for release tomorrow. We do, however, have Congressional testimony by Chairman Bernanke late tomorrow morning. He will be speaking to a House Financial committee about employment growth and whether further stimulus is needed. These are hot topics so his words may influence the markets and possibly mortgage rates.

Tuesday morning brings us the first of this week's data with the release of February's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) during late morning trading. This Conference Board index measures consumer confidence in their personal financial situations, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the economy, related data is considered important in terms of gauging economic activity. It is expected to show a decline in confidence from 55.9 in January to 55.0 this month. A lower reading would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

January's New Home Sales report will be posted late Wednesday morning. This is one of the least important reports of the week, and it is the sister report to Friday's Existing Home Sales release. They measure housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually do not have a significant impact on bond trading or mortgage rates. They are both expected to show an increase in sales.

Mr. Bernanke will deliver the Fed's semi-annual testimony on the status of the economy late Wednesday and Thursday mornings. He will be speaking to the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee Thursday. Market participants will watch the Fed Chairman's words very closely. He is required to deliver this testimony twice a year, which is considered to be of extreme importance to the financial markets. We almost always see the markets move as a result of what he says during this testimony. Look for him to address the unemployment and housing crises specifically and their impact on the overall economy. His testimony begins at 10:00 AM ET with a prepared statement then is followed by Q & A with committee members. I am expecting to see the markets fluctuate during this session, possibly affecting mortgage rates also.

The only important data scheduled for release Thursday is January's Durable Goods Orders data. This data gives us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for items expected to last three or more years. A smaller increase than the 1.5% that is expected would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. This data is quite volatile from month-to-month, so large swings are fairly normal.

The first of two revisions to the 4th Quarter GDP reading is scheduled for release Friday morning. Analysts' forecasts currently call for an annual rate of growth of 5.6%, indicating that the economy was slightly weaker in the last quarter of the year than initially thought. It will be interesting to see where this figure falls and what its impact on the markets will be. Generally speaking, higher levels of activity are bad news for the bond market, while a sizable downward revision would be good news and could lead to improvements in mortgage pricing.

The last piece of data scheduled for release this week is the University of Michigan's revision to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for February. Current forecasts show this index revising slightly higher than previously thought. The preliminary reading was 73.7 and is now expected to stand at 73.9, indicating that consumer sentiment was slightly stronger than previously thought. This index is fairly important because it helps us measure consumer confidence that translates into consumer willingness to spend.

In addition to this week's economic reports and Chairman Bernanke's speaking dates, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Notes Wednesday and 7-year Notes on Thursday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions to mortgage rates. However, strong sales usually make bonds more attractive to investors and bring more funds into bonds. The buying of bonds that follows usually translates into lower mortgage rates.

Overall, look for plenty of movement in bond prices and mortgage rates this week. I think we will see the most movement either Wednesday or Thursday, but Friday may be fairly active also. This would be a very good week to maintain contact with your mortgage professional, especially if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory

There are five economic reports worth watching this week that are likely to affect mortgage rates in addition to the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. The financial markets are closed Monday in observance of the President's Day Holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. You may find some lenders to be open for business Monday, but I would not expect to see new rates issued until Tuesday.

Wednesday brings us three releases, including the week's least important of the five economic reports. January's Housing Starts will be posted early Wednesday morning, giving us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It usually does not affect rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in starts of new housing.

January's Industrial Production data will be released mid-morning Wednesday. It gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities and can have a moderate impact on the financial markets. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.8% increase in production from December to January. A smaller than expected rise in output would be good news and should push bond prices higher, lowering mortgage rates Wednesday.

The minutes from last FOMC meeting will be released Wednesday afternoon. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed's next move regarding monetary policy. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during afternoon trading. This particular set of minutes could be interesting due to the wording of the last post-meeting statement. I suspect there was some debate amongst the FOMC members before releasing that statement. These minutes will likely clarify if there is a consensus amongst them or if there is disagreement about the Fed's actions or inactions. A consensus likely means a sooner change to key short-term rates. Accordingly, I am expecting some volatility in the markets after the minutes are released.

The Labor Department will post their Producer Price Index (PPI) for January early Thursday morning. It measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the report that analysts watch- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is more important to market participants because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. It is expected to show an increase of 0.8% in the overall reading and a 0.1% rise in the core data. Good news for bonds would be a decline in both readings, particularly the core data.

Also Thursday morning will be the release of the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for January. This Conference Board report attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.5% increase, meaning that economic activity may rise in the near future. A smaller than expected rise would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The Labor Department will release January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET Friday, which measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy. With exception to maybe the Employment report, the CPI is the most important report that we see each month. Its results can have a huge impact on the financial markets, especially on long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds. It is expected to show a 0.3% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the more important core data. If we see weaker than expected readings, bond prices should rise and mortgage rates would likely fall.

Overall, the most important day of the week will likely be Friday with the CPI being released, but Wednesday and Thursday may also be active days for mortgage rates. In other words, be prepared for an active week in the markets and mortgage rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

There are only three pieces of relevant economic data scheduled to be posted this week along with a couple of Treasury auctions. Only one of the three reports is considered to be of high importance while one is moderately important. The third is not considered to be of much importance unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

None of the economic reports will be posted tomorrow or Tuesday. The first report comes Wednesday morning and is the least important of the three. That is when December's Goods and Services Trade Balance data will be posted. This report measures the U.S. trade deficit and can affect the value of the U.S. dollar versus other currencies, but it usually does not cause enough movement in bond prices to affect mortgage rates. It is expected to show a $35.0 billion trade deficit.

The most important data of the week is Thursday's release of January's Retail Sales data. This report is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched quite closely. If Thursday's report reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates will fall. However, a stronger reading than the 0.4% increase that is expected could lead to higher mortgage rates.

February's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released late Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. If it shows an increase in consumer confidence, the stock markets may move higher and bond prices could fall. It is currently expected to rise slightly from January's final reading of 74.4 to 74.8 for this month.

The two important Treasury auctions come Wednesday and Thursday when 10-year Notes and 30-year Bonds are sold. The 10-year sale is the more important one as it will give us an indication for demand of mortgage-related securities. If the sales are met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market move higher during afternoon trading the days of the auctions. But a lackluster interest from buyers, particularly international investors, would indicate a waning appetite for longer-term U.S. securities and lead to broader bond selling. The selling in bonds would likely result in upward revisions to mortgage rates.

Overall, look for Thursday to be the most important of the day of the week due to the importance of the Retail Sales report. But, I suspect that we may see movement in mortgage rates several days this week. I am still holding a cautious approach stance towards mortgage rates and believe that the risk of floating a rate outweighs the potential gains. Therefore, please be careful if still floating an interest rate this week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory

This week is extremely busy in terms of economic data scheduled for release and will likely be another active week for mortgage rates. There are five economic releases scheduled for the week in addition to several speaking events for Fed and Cabinet members that may also influence the markets and mortgage rates. Four of these reports are considered to be of moderate or high importance, meaning we should see quite a bit of movement in mortgage rates this week.

The first report of the week is January's Personal Income and Outlays data tomorrow morning, which gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Current forecasts call for an increase in income of 0.3% while spending is expected to rise 0.3%. Larger increases would be good news for the stock markets and could hurt bond prices, driving mortgage rates higher tomorrow. Smaller than expected increases would be considered good news for mortgage rates.

Also schedule d for release tomorrow morning is the Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index. This index tracks manufacturer sentiment by rating surveyed trade executives' opinions of business conditions. It is usually the first economic data released each month and is one of this week's very important reports. Current forecasts are calling for a reading in the neighborhood of 55.2 that would be a decline from December's reading. The lower the reading, the better the news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Employee Productivity and Costs data for the 4th quarter will be released early Thursday morning. It can cause some movement in the bond market, but should have a minimal impact on mortgage pricing. If it varies greatly from analysts' forecasts of a 6.0% increase, we may see some movement in mortgage rates. However, the markets will be much more interested in Friday's data.

Late Thursday morning, December's Factory Orders data will be posted. It is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release in giving us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength, but this data includes new orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is one of the less important reports of the week, but can influence mortgage pricing if it varies greatly from forecasts.

Friday's data is by far the most important of the week. The Labor Department will post January's Employment data early Friday morning, giving us the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month among other related statistics. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate remain at 10.0% and that approximately 13,000 new jobs were added to the economy. An increase in unemployment and a loss in payrolls would be great news for the bond market. It would probably create a bond market rally, leading to lower mortgage rates Friday morning. However, if Friday's report reveals stronger than expected results, we can expect to see mortgage rates move higher.

In addition to the factual economic data, we also have several public speaking events about the U.S. budget, monetary policy and other related topics. They are sprinkled throughout the week and can cause a market reaction if anything said surprises market participants.

Overall, look for tomorrow or Friday to be the biggest days for mortgage rates. Friday's Employment report is the most important piece of data, but we may see quite a bit of movement in rates tomorrow morning also. If we see weaker than expected results from Tomorrow's ISM report and Friday's employment data, we should see rates close the week lower than last Friday's closing levels. If the data shows stronger than expected results, we may see mortgage rates move higher for the week. This is of course, assuming that the Fed and Cabinet speeches don't reveal any surprises.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.