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Real Estate Tax Credit Set To Expire
October 7th, 2009 11:33 AM
Real Estate Tax Credit Set To Expire
 

TODAY's Meridith Viera talks to real estate agent Barbara Corcoran about the upcoming deadline for first-time homebuyers to take advantage of the federal tax credit.


Posted by Mark Brekhus on October 7th, 2009 11:33 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Tax Credit Gives Housing Market A Boost
October 30th, 2009 12:22 PM
Tax Credit Gives Housing Market A Boost
 

A mini-boom is taking place in the housing market as buyers race to take advantage of the first-time home owner tax credit before it expires in November. CNBC's Diana Olick reports.


Posted by Mark Brekhus on October 30th, 2009 12:22 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Weekly Rate Lock Advisory - 10/26/2009
October 26th, 2009 6:20 PM

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory

This week brings us the release of seven relevant economic reports and two important Treasury auctions for the bond market to digest. There is relevant data or events scheduled every day except Monday, so there is a pretty good chance of seeing noticeable movement in mortgage rates several days this week.

The first report of the week is one of the more important ones. October's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be posted late Tuesday morning. This Conference Board index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a small increase in confidence from last month's 53.1 reading, indicating that consumers are a little more likely to make large purchases in the near future than last month. As long as the reading doesn't exceed the forecasted 53.5, we will likely see the bond market react favorably to this report. This data is watched closely because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

Wednesday morning the Commerce Department will post Durable Goods Orders for September. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items. Analysts are currently calling for an increase in new orders of approximately 1.0%. If we see a larger than expected increase in orders, mortgage rates will probably rise as bond prices fall. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data can be quite volatile from month to month and is difficult to forecast.

Also Wednesday is the release of September's New Home Sales. This data covers the remaining 15% of home sales that last week's Existing Home Sales report tracked and is this week's least important data. It is expected to show an increase in sales, but regardless of its results I am not expecting it to have a significant impact on mortgage rates Wednesday.

The next relevant data is the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) early Thursday morning. The GDP is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth because it is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and therefore is likely to have a major impact on the financial markets and mortgage pricing. There are three versions of this report, each a month apart. Thursday's release is the first and usually has the biggest impact on the markets. Current forecasts call for an increase of approximately 3.2% in the GDP. If this report does show a much smaller increase, I am expecting to see the bond market rally and mortgage rates to fall. However, a larger than expected rise could lead to bond selling and a sizable increase in mortgage pricing.

There are three reports scheduled for release Friday. The first is the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits. Rapidly rising costs raises wage inflation concerns and may hurt bond prices. It is expected to show an increase in costs of 0.5%. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates. 

September's Personal Income and Outlays report will also be posted early Friday. This data gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is important to the markets because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Rising income generally indicates that consumers have more money to spend, making economic growth more of a possibility. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because it raises inflation concerns, making long-term securities such as mortgage related bonds less attractive to investors. Analysts are expecting to see no change in income and decline in outlays of 0.5%. 

The week's last report comes at 10:00 AM ET Friday w hen the University of Michigan updates their Index of Consumer Sentiment for this month. Current forecasts show this index rising slightly this month's preliminary reading of 69.4. This index is moderately important because it helps us measure consumer confidence, which is believed to indicate consumers' willingness to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered to be relevant.

This week also has Treasury auctions scheduled each day except Friday. However, the two that are most likely to influence mortgage rates are Wednesday's 5-year and Thursday's 7-year Note sales. If those sales are met with a strong demand, particularly Thursday's auction, bond prices may rise during afternoon trading. This could lead to improvements to mortgage rates shortly after the results of the sales are posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. But a lackluster investor demand may create bond selling and upward revisions to mortgage rates.

Overall, it will likely be an active week for the markets and mortgage rates. I believe that the single most important day will probably end up being Thursday with the extremely important GDP release in the morning and the Treasury auction results during afternoon hours. Tomorrow will likely be the calmest day of the week, but Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday should also be active. Accordingly, I strongly recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional this week, especially if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


Posted by Mark Brekhus on October 26th, 2009 6:20 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Has The Housing Market Hit Bottom?
October 26th, 2009 6:05 PM
Has The Housing Market Hit Bottom?
 

TODAY's Matt Lauer talks to real estate agent Barbara Corcoran about the state of the housing market and some questions to ask before buying a home.


Posted by Mark Brekhus on October 26th, 2009 6:05 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Weekly Rate Lock Advisory - 10/19/2009
October 20th, 2009 12:04 PM

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory

This week brings us the release of five economic reports for the markets to digest. Only one of these reports is considered to be highly important to mortgage rates, but this by no means leads me to believe we will have an uneventful week. This will be an extremely busy week for corporate earnings, which usually translates into stock volatility. The lack of important economic data on this week's calendar makes it more likely that any significant swings in stock prices will influence bond trading and mortgage rates.

There is nothing of importance scheduled to be posted Monday morning. We will get a couple of important earnings releases including Texas Instruments and Apple, Inc, but they are being announced after the markets close tomorrow. This means that any reaction in the markets won't come until Tuesday's trading. I am thinking that Monday may end up being one of the calmer days for mortgage rates. 

September's Producer Price Index (PPI) is the first report of the week and the most important of the five. This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. Analysts are expecting to see no change in the overall index and a 0.1% rise in the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A larger than expected increase could fuel inflation concerns in the bond market and push mortgage rates higher. However, weaker than expected readings should lead to lower rates Tuesday. 

September's Housing Starts is the second report of the day, but is one of the week's least important pieces of data. It gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually is not a mover of mortgage rates. It is expected to show an increase in starts of new homes last month. If it varies greatly from forecasts, we could see the bond market have some reaction to the news, but probably not enough to cause much movement in rates. The PPI report should be much more of an influence on mortgage rates Tuesday than this housing report will.

The only data scheduled for release Wednesday comes during afternoon trading when the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during their FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy. If it reveals stronger signs of inflation or economic growth from the last release, we could see mortgage rates revise higher shortly after its release.

The next report is September's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) late Thursday morning. This index attempts to measure future economic activity, particularly during the next three to six months. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.9% from August?s reading. This would indicate that economic activity is likely to increase fairly rapidly. That would be bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this report is considered to be only moderately important.

September's Existing Home Sales will be posted at 10:00 AM ET Friday. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking home resales. I don't see it having much of an influence on the bond market or mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts' forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing. It is expected to show an increase in sales from August to September.

Overall, look for Tuesday to be the most important day of the week with the PPI being posted. However, if we see a significant rally or sell-off in stocks any particular day, it may end up bringing us the biggest single day change in mortgage pricing. The negative tone in bonds over the past two weeks may be subsiding somewhat, but I believe we s till need to remain cautious towards mortgage rates. If the corporate earnings releases are generally weaker than forecasts, I may change to a less conservative stance. But until there is some strong evidence that the worst may be behind us, it is prudent to proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
 


Posted by Mark Brekhus on October 20th, 2009 12:04 PMPost a Comment (0)

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Housing Market Momentum
October 14th, 2009 10:33 AM
Housing Market Momentum
 

Home prices are on the way up, with CNBC's Diana Olick.


Posted by Mark Brekhus on October 14th, 2009 10:33 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Weekly Rate Lock Advisory - 10/12/2009
October 13th, 2009 12:56 AM

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory

This week brings us the release of five economic reports that are of interest to the mortgage market along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. The week also gets heavy in quarterly earnings releases for companies, which could cause significant movement in the stock markets again. The earnings results could affect bond trading as investors move funds into stocks if the reports are good. The other possibility is that the earnings reports would generally disappoint, meaning investors may move funds out of stocks and into bonds as a safe-haven. The latter would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The bond market is closed today in observance of the Columbus Day holiday and will reopen Tuesday morning. The first piece of data comes Wednesday morning when September's Retail Sales report is posted. This data is very important to the markets because it measures consumer spending by tracking sales at retail establishments in the U.S. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered to be highly important. If we see weaker than expected readings in this report, the bond market should respond favorably and mortgage rates should drop. However, stronger than expected sales could fuel a stock rally and push mortgage rates higher. Current forecasts are calling for a 2.1% decline in sales. The large drop from August's sales is expected to come from a significant decline in auto transactions since the Cash for Clunkers program ended.

Also scheduled for release Wednesday is the minutes to the last FOMC meeting. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed's next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher Wednesday afternoon. However, if they indicate that inflation is s till not a threat and that a rate increase is not likely in the near future, the bond market and mortgage rates should remain calm.

Thursday morning brings us another major economic release. September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released early Thursday morning. It measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy and is one of the most important reports that the bond market gets each month. Analysts are expecting to see a rise of 0.2% in the overall index and an increase of 0.1% in the core data reading. A larger than expected increase in the core reading could raise inflation concerns in the bond market and push mortgage rates higher Thursday. However, a smaller than expected reading should ease inflation concerns and lead to lower mortgage rates. This is one of the most important reports we see each month, so its impact on mortgage rates could be significant.

The remaining two reports are both scheduled for release Friday morning. September's Industrial Production data is the first release of the day and will be posted mid-morning. It gives us an indication of manufacturing strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.1% increase in output from August's level, meaning that manufacturing activity rose slightly. A larger than expected increase in output would be negative for bonds and mortgage rates while a decline should help push mortgage rates lower Friday morning.

The last report of the week is October's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment late Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and usually has a moderate impact on the financial markets. If it shows a sizable decline in consumer confidence, bond prices will probably rise. It is expected to show a reading of 74.0, up slightly from September's final of 73.5.

Overall, I am expecting to see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates this week, but mostly the latter part of the week. The key reports are Wednesday's Retail Sales report and Thursday's CPI data. But the active week for corporate earnings can also heavily influence trading and mortgage rates any day of the week. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously if you have not locked an interest rates yet.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


Posted by Mark Brekhus on October 13th, 2009 12:56 AMPost a Comment (0)

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Weekly Rate Lock Advisory - 10/05/2009
October 7th, 2009 1:35 AM

Weekly Rate Lock Advisory

This week brings us only one monthly economic report for the markets to digest and it is not considered to be of high importance. This means that the week will be left mostly up to the stock markets and other influences since there is a lack of factual data for bonds to trade on. In addition to the one report, we also have two relevant Treasury auctions that can also cause movement in rates if demand for them is particularly strong or weak.

The first relevant event of the week is Wednesday's 10-year Treasury Note auction. This sale will give us an important measure of investor interest in longer-term U.S. debt, particularly from international buyers. If there is a strong demand in the sale, we should see the broader bond market rally and mortgage rates move lower. However, a lackluster interest in the sale would likely lead to higher mortgage rates Wednesday afternoon.

The second important sale is Thursday's 30-year Bond sale. It is not as important to mortgage rates as Wednesday's 10-year Note sale is, but it is important enough to influence trading and bond market sentiment. As with Wednesday's sale, a strong demand would be good news for mortgage pricing while a weak interest may lead to upward revisions to rates Thursday afternoon.

The only factual economic data of the week will be posted Friday morning. August's Goods and Services Trade Balance will be released that day, but is not likely to cause much of a change in mortgage pricing. It will give us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually does not lead to significant movement in bond prices or mortgage rates. It is expected to show a $32.9 billion trade deficit.

Overall, I suspect this is going to be fairly quiet week for the bond market and mortgage rates, especially compared to last week. For the most part, I believe the week will be left to the stock markets and the Fed auctions. The most important day of the week is likely Wednesday due to the 10-year Treasury Note sale, but any day of significant stock volatility may make that particular day the most eventful. 

The bond market will be closed next Monday in observance of the Columbus Day holiday, but there will not be an early close in trading Friday. The only recognition of the holiday comes next Monday.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers. 


Posted by Mark Brekhus on October 7th, 2009 1:35 AMPost a Comment (0)

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New Home Sales Were Up 0.7 Percent In August
October 4th, 2009 10:12 PM
New Home Sales Were Up 0.7 Percent In August
 

New home sales were up 0.7 percent in August, much less than expected. CNBC's Diana Olick has the details.


Posted by Mark Brekhus on October 4th, 2009 10:12 PMPost a Comment (0)

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